Raw Material Volatility Intensifies: Lub Tsib Hlis 2026 Textile Supply Chain Divergence

Nyob ib ncig ntawm lub Tsib Hlis Hnub so ntawm 2026, kev lag luam textile raw khoom tau ntsib kev kub ntxhov. Ib txhij tus nqi nce siab hauv ob qho tib sipaj rwb thiab hluavtaws fiberstau cuam tshuam cov txheej txheem nqi ib txwm muaj, yuam kom tag nrho cov khaub ncaws xa khoom mus rau hauv tus nqi nyuaj -kev tawm tsam. Cov qauv no tsis yog tsuas yog reshaping tusupstream/downstream profit structuretab sis kuj tseem ua kom lub polarization ntawm kev lag luam.

I. Paj Rwb Tus Nqi Tshaj Tawm los ntawm kev txwv kev xa khoom

Paj rwb tau dhau los ua tus thawj tsav tsheb ntawm kev nce nqi. Kev drought tsis tu ncua nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam loj loj tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev txo qis rau lub caij tshiab.

• Kev ua lag luam Dynamics: Spot tus nqi rau lint paj rwb tau nce los ntawm kwv yees li 1,600 RMB / tuj piv rau thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Qhov kev nce no cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm cov paj rwb ntshiab, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab cov ris tsho hnav.
• Kev lag luam teb: Txhawm rau tswj cov nqi, qee lub npe davhlau ya nyob twg tau pib kho lawvcov ntaub ntawv muaj pes tsawg leeg, txav deb ntawm siab - suav cov paj rwb ntshiab mus rau tus nqi ntau dua - cov khoom zoo.

II. Synthetic Fibers Siab los ntawm Cov Nqi Zog

Covhluavtaws fiberssector tab tom ntsib kev poob qis zoo ib yam li cov nqi nkag mus rau cov saw muaj nqis.

• Crude Oil Influence: Volatility nyob rau hauv thoob ntiaj teb geopolitics thiab nce nqi roj crude tau thawb tus nqi rau polyester staple fiber, polyester filament, thiab spandex, nrog rau feem ntau pom nce ntawm 10% mus rau 15%.
• Cov nyhuv "Sandwich".: Midstream weaving tuam txhab pom lawv tus kheej raug ntes ntawm tus nqi raw khoom nce thiab ncua kev hloov pauv hauv cov nqi khoom tiav. Qhov no tau ua rau muaj qhov xwm txheej uas me me - mus rau - cov chaw tsim khoom nruab nrab tawm tsam kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo txawm tias muaj kev ua haujlwm siab.

III. Accelerated Kev Lag Luam Polarization

Kev nce nqi tam sim no tau hais txog qhov sib txawv me ntsis ntawm cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam thiab cov neeg ua si me.

• Leader Advantage: Sab saum toj -tier weaving thiab branding enterprises yog siv tsawg- cov khoom muag khoom nqi thiab loj - nplai kev yuav khoom los tiv thaiv tus nqi nce siab. Cov txiaj ntsig tag nrho hauv cov khoom lag luam paj rwb zoo tshaj plaws tau nce 18.6% hauv Q1.
• SME Qhov Teeb Meem: Cov chaw ua haujlwm me me, tsis muaj cov nqi qis dua - tus nqi buffers thiab kev khiav hauj lwm ntawm cov npoo nyias, ntsib qhov kev xaiv nyuaj ntawm kev poob - ua xaj lossis poob ntev - cov neeg siv khoom.

Xaus: Hloov mus rau tus nqi-Ntxiv cov khoom siv Textiles

Lub volatility pom thaum lub sij hawm lub Tsib Hlis Ntuj yog ib tug microcosm ntawm ib tug loj structural hloov. Cov nqi raw khoom siab tsis zoo li yuav rov qab los rau lub sijhawm luv luv, thiab cov nyiaj tau los rau homogenized, qis -kawg fabrics yuav txuas ntxiv mus.

Nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig no, txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb rau kev rhuav tshem tus nqi tsis raug cuam tshuam nrog kev txhim kho cov khoom lag luam thiab txav mus rauua haujlwm textilesnrog tus nqi ntxiv dua. Kev tsim khoom qib siabib puag ncig fibersqhov kev qhia zoo ib yamseem stabilityyog ib lub tswv yimtsom pabmanufacturers txo cov khoom txaus ntshai. Los ntawm kev tsom mus rau kev tsim kho tshiab dua li kev sib tw nqi, cov lag luam tuaj yeem ua tau zoo duakev txhawb nqalawv lub sijhawm ntev - kev loj hlob hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hloov zuj zus.